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Delayed by a brief government closure, the much awaited US January 2026 Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is slated for release today at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists predict meager job growth of around 70,000 jobs, a small improvement from December's poor 50,000 but well below typical historical averages surpassing 150,000. With ongoing evidence of a cooling labor market in the face of policy uncertainties, the unemployment rate is projected to stay at 4.4% and average hourly salary increase is expected to slow from 3.8% year-over--year to 3.6%.
Leading indicators point to ongoing hiring uncertainty; the ADP private payrolls report reveals just 22,000 jobs added in January—far below the anticipated 48,000; Revelio Labs emphasizes a 13,000 job loss mostly in public administration, hospitality/leisure, and retail. Healthcare and other sectors could help to support improvements, although services and manufacturing are pointing downward. Additionally included in the report are major 2025 benchmark changes that could lower-adjust prior hiring estimates by around 911,000 jobs through March, perhaps validating a weaker job environment than previously stated.
Market reactions depend on the result: a print well under 30,000–50,000 could weigh on the USD while raising chances of a Fed rate cut as early as March (now about 15% probability). Although negative risks from poor precursors and corrections overwhelm expectations, a "Goldilocks" outcome near or somewhat above agreement could stabilize sentiment, therefore highlighting more general labor market softening in early 2026.
