Quotes from Capital Economics:
- We've pencilled in a 2.5% m/m rise in industrial production in Jan following the 0.8% m/m increase in Dec, but we'll also watch closely the forecasts for February and March to judge whether production will continue to recover. Business surveys point to some slowdown in coming months.
- Meanwhile, fuel sales account for 10% of overall retail sales, so the 9% drop in gasoline prices last month should have dragged down the headline figure. Gasoline and other fuels account for a much smaller share of around 3% of the CPI basket, so the impact on inflation should have been less pronounced. Nonetheless, we've also pencilled in 0.3% m/m drop in the core (excl. Fresh Food) CPI last month, so the annual inflation rate should have slowed from 2.5% to 2.2%.
- Finally, we expect a renewed fall in the unemployment rate from 3.4% to a fresh low of 3.3% and another rise in the job-to-applicant ratio. (All data are due at 23:30 GMT on Thursday)
