Kasikorn Research Center (K-Research) expects Thailand's economy to grow 2% in 2027, as weak household demand and external risks weigh on the broader recovery, the Bangkok Post reported.
Nattaporn Triratanasirikul, the center's deputy managing director, told the newspaper that fragile household purchasing power would make it harder for growth to spread evenly. Investment-promotion applications point to opportunities in electronics and businesses serving AI infrastructure and supply chains, the report said. Triratanasirikul said those openings may not translate into broad gains while household spending remains weak.
On the external side, Triratanasirikul cited geopolitical tensions and high public debt in several economies, particularly the United States. She said political divisions could constrain Washington's ability to use government spending, with the outcome partly dependent on the balance of power in Congress.
The Bank of Thailand raised its GDP forecasts on Oct. 28, taking its 2026 estimate to 2.4% from 2.3% and its 2027 projection to 2.1% from 1.8%. The change is detailed in an earlier EconoTimes report on the central bank's forecast revision. The central bank also kept its policy rate at 1% for a fourth consecutive meeting to support the economic recovery.
SCB Economic Intelligence Center (SCB EIC) expects the rate to remain at 1% through 2027, citing household debt and weak competitiveness among small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs), senior economist Nond Prueksiri told the Bangkok Post. Prueksiri said inflation pressure is mainly supply-driven and should ease quickly next year. He pointed to oil prices and El Niño as potential sources of price pressure, and said better credit access for SMEs and retail borrowers will matter more as the policy rate becomes less effective for supporting vulnerable groups.
Triratanasirikul said K-Research is reviewing its 2% growth estimate for 2026 and expects to update it after the National Economic and Social Development Council releases third-quarter GDP figures on Nov. 16.
