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U.S. President Donald Trump has not implemented tariffs immediately as many anticipated, but Barclays warns markets to remain vigilant, pointing to April 1, 2025, as a pivotal date. According to Barclays, the "America First Trade Policy" presidential memorandum, issued on Trump's first day in office, serves as a roadmap for potential tariff adjustments.
The memorandum mandates departments and agencies to review and submit reports by April 1, likely setting the stage for new tariff proposals or revisions. Analysts suggest this timeline provides enough time for the Senate to confirm key positions, including Howard Lutnick as Commerce Secretary and Jamieson Greer as U.S. Trade Representative—both crucial for executing trade policy shifts.
Barclays predicts that changes to tariff policies could be announced shortly after April 1, with implementation 30 to 60 days later. Possible measures include a universal tariff or targeted tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada. While Trump has already threatened to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada starting February 1 and up to 100% tariffs on China over TikTok, Barclays believes the structured timeline in the memorandum holds greater significance than these remarks.
The memorandum also directs investigations into the U.S.’s trade deficits and recommends remedies, potentially including a global supplemental tariff. Barclays highlights that countries and industries with significant trade deficits with the U.S. may face the greatest risk of targeted tariffs.
Investors should monitor developments closely as these changes could significantly impact global trade and markets. The April deadline marks a critical juncture for understanding Trump’s trade strategy.
