Knight Frank estimates stamp duty from England’s top-end home sales was £541 million lower across comparable 18-month periods, putting property-tax revenues into focus ahead of Chancellor John Healey’s first Budget.
To account for changing property values, the consultancy adjusted its £5 million qualifying threshold. It counted 2,208 qualifying sales in the later period, 14% fewer than the 2,569 in the earlier one. Estimated stamp duty receipts fell to £2.855 billion from £3.395 billion. Knight Frank calculated that an estimated £201 million in additional revenue from the higher charge on additional homes narrowed the difference to £541 million. Its calculation assumes half of buyers paid both the additional-home and overseas-buyer surcharges.
The figure is Knight Frank’s estimate for a limited segment of the housing market, not an official measure of total government receipts. The comparison alone does not establish what caused sales or receipts to decline. The higher rate for additional dwellings rose from 3 to 5 percentage points above standard residential rates for transactions effective Oct. 31, 2024.
A separate High Value Council Tax Surcharge for owners of homes in England worth £2 million or more is due to start in April 2028. The government expects it to raise £0.4 billion in 2029-30, with annual charges ranging from £2,500 to £7,500 according to property value; revenue is intended to support local services.
Foreign Investors for Britain’s parliamentary submission proposes a Global Investor Visa requiring at least £2.5 million in productive UK assets, excluding passive gilts and owner-occupied homes. The proposal also includes a £200,000 annual charge, a minimum five-year residence expectation and a participation period of up to 15 years. It is a lobby-group proposal, not government policy.
Knight Frank separately reported that prime central London prices rose 0.3% over the three months through September 2026, their first quarterly increase in four years, while remaining 2% below a year earlier. Tom Bill, the firm’s head of UK residential research, wrote that “the mere absence of bad news fuels demand.”
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) recorded £24.52 billion in public-sector net borrowing in September 2026. Public-sector net debt was provisionally estimated at £3.005 trillion, or 94% of gross domestic product, at the end of the month. Healey has said the government aims to balance its books “with a buffer to protect against uncertainty.”
A survey commissioned by professional-services firm S&W found that 50% of 500 UK business owners would consider leaving if capital gains tax (CGT) rose in the Budget; 51% said they would consider leaving if a wealth tax were introduced. Censuswide conducted the survey from Aug. 11 to Aug. 24, 2026, among owners of businesses with turnover of at least £5 million. The responses describe stated intentions, not actual departures.
Healey is scheduled to deliver the Budget on Wednesday, Oct. 28, when the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is also due to publish updated economic and public-finance forecasts.
