Likelihood of US Fed hike this year at around 40%

"Always prepared" might as well be the motto of US central bankers. 13 out of 17 FOMC members expect a first rate hike this year, four don't. It is a reason for each one of them to try and shape market expectations in line with their own opinion, as in the current market environment it only seems possible to implement something that is being expected.

In view of flagging stock markets, concerns about Emerging Market demand and continued low inflation levels the Fed will not want to surprise the markets. However, the speeches delivered by FOMC members yesterday were unable to convince the market that the first rate hike really was due in December. 

"The market continues to see the likelihood of that at around 40%. Of course that is hardly surprising as the decision for or against a rate hike will be taken in December and a lot can happen until then", says Commerzbank.