Long GBP/INR on every dip as Indian monsoon gambles on FX markets

GBP is looking stronger in many perspectives over Indian rupee as Government of India today expects monsoon to go below average this year. Thunders, lightening and rain bearing clouds began troubling Indian rupee (INR) as monsoon season in India is still at least a month from now. Rupee was resisting to trade firm and attempting to show strength despite serious of troublesome news such as tax imposing on FIIs (MAT) which is discussed in our earlier post. Now more stressfully, Indian meteorological department states "quantitatively, seasonal rainfall is expected to be unusual and be diminished".

The forecast raises the concerns for major exporting agricultural output which is not good prospect for summer crops like rice, cane, cotton and soybean. India is the key global producer of these farm commodities. In addition FIIs outflow is one more hindrance rupee appreciation.

The weekly and daily technical chart suggests a crystal clear uptrend on GBP/INR, as Pound stands solid on its fundamentals and UK elections in next fortnight or so. We could see a bullish engulfing candle formed on 2nd week of April, this has been confirmed as RSI in sync with convergence of price curve. Therefore, the long on positions can clearly be built above 94.16 mark.
This necked position may earn decent profits for intraday traders catching the proper swings as well as hedges Indian forex exposures towards pounds for overseas businessmen.