Lula Holds Narrow Lead Over Flavio Bolsonaro in Brazil Election Poll

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva continues to hold a narrow advantage over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a potential runoff in Brazil’s October presidential election, according to a new Datafolha poll released Friday.

The survey showed Lula receiving 46% of voter support in a hypothetical second-round contest, compared with 44% for Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. The two-point gap remains unchanged from Datafolha’s previous poll conducted last week, highlighting how closely contested the Brazil presidential election could become.

The latest figures also show Lula maintaining his lead in a first-round scenario. The incumbent president received 39% support, while Flavio Bolsonaro followed with 35%. Augusto Cury ranked third with 6%, while Ronaldo Caiado received 4%.

Compared with the previous Datafolha survey, both leading candidates gained support in the first-round matchup. Lula increased from 38% to 39%, while Bolsonaro climbed from 33% to 35%, narrowing the president’s advantage from five percentage points to four.

The results suggest that Lula and Bolsonaro remain the dominant candidates heading toward the October election, although neither currently has enough support to secure an outright first-round victory.

Under Brazil’s presidential election system, a candidate must receive more than 50% of valid votes to win in the opening round. If nobody reaches that threshold, the two candidates with the highest vote totals advance to a runoff. Brazil has required a presidential runoff in every election since 2002.

Datafolha interviewed 2,002 people between September 8 and September 10. The survey has a margin of error of two percentage points, meaning Lula’s narrow runoff advantage over Flavio Bolsonaro falls within the poll’s statistical margin.

With the two frontrunners separated by only two points in the potential runoff, Brazil’s presidential race remains highly competitive ahead of the October vote.