Lula Leads Flavio Bolsonaro 48%-45% in Datafolha Poll

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva holds a narrow numerical lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a potential presidential election runoff, according to a new Datafolha poll released Thursday. However, the two candidates remain statistically tied within the survey’s margin of error.

In a hypothetical second-round contest, Lula receives 48% of voter support, compared with 45% for Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. The gap is within the poll’s two-percentage-point margin of error, meaning the race remains technically tied.

The latest numbers show only a modest change from the previous Datafolha survey. Lula previously registered 47% in a runoff matchup, while Flavio Bolsonaro remained at 45%. The new poll therefore shows the president gaining one percentage point while his main rival holds steady.

Datafolha also shows Lula ahead in the first-round presidential race. The incumbent president has 42% of voting intentions, while Flavio Bolsonaro follows with 38%. Augusto Cury is at 4%, while Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos each receive 3%.

The first-round figures indicate gains for both leading candidates compared with the previous survey, when Lula had 40% and Bolsonaro had 36%. The results underscore the closely contested nature of Brazil’s 2026 presidential election as voters prepare to head to the polls.

If no presidential candidate secures more than 50% of valid votes in the first round, the two candidates with the highest totals will advance to a runoff later in October.

Datafolha interviewed 2,506 voters aged 16 and older between September 29 and October 1. The nationwide survey has a margin of error of two percentage points in either direction and a 95% confidence level. It is registered with Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court under number BR-08039/2026.