March ADP Report: Will Jobs Data Confirm Cooling Labor Market?

The US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change for March 2025 is due out today, April 2, 2025, at 12:15 GMT. The forecasts for the release widely differ. Some predict a low number of just 4,000 jobs created, which would mark a sharp slowdown from February. Others are calling for a more solid gain of 120,000 jobs, with views ranging between 60,000 and 125,000.

 February's ADP report confirmed that private employers hired 77,000 workers, the weakest gain in seven months. Policy uncertainty and consumer spending slowdown are the reasons blamed for employers' hiring reluctance. The service industries experienced gains within leisure/hospitality, professional/business, and financial activities, while losses within trade/transportation/utilities, education/health, and information. Goods-producing industries enjoyed gains in manufacturing and construction.

 The influence of the forthcoming report depends on whether it accords with the lower or higher projections. A low reading could be an indication of more cooling in the labor market, while a better-than-forecast reading could mean ongoing strength in private-sector employment. Financial markets are likely to respond in line with the deviation from expectations