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The currency pair is trading flat ahead of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision. Intraday bias remains bullish as long as the support level at 0.8890 holds. The pair reached a high of 0.89750 and is currently trading around 0.89407.
FOMC Meeting Insights
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on December 18, 2024, is expected to lead to a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the federal funds rate down to a range of 4.25% to 4.50%. This represents the third consecutive rate cut as the Federal Reserve responds to rising inflation and a weakening job market. Economic indicators show mixed signals, with increasing prices for essential goods complicating the situation. Market sentiment strongly favors the rate cut, with a 99% probability of it occurring. Analysts expect the Fed to pause further cuts until at least March 2025 as they focus on the evolving economic landscape and inflation trends.
Technical Analysis
The pair is currently trading above both the 34-EMA and the 55-EMA on the 4-hour chart, indicating a potential uptrend. The near-term resistance level is at 0.8970; a break above this could lead to targets at 0.9000 and 0.90480. A break above 0.87500 confirms that the decline from 0.9225 has completed at 0.83750.
Support and Resistance Levels
Immediate support is at 0.8890. If this level is broken, the pair could decline to 0.8850, 0.8835, and down to 0.8600. Additional levels to watch include 0.8580, 0.8550, 0.8525, and 0.8499, with a significant Fibonacci projection at 0.8365.
Indicator Analysis
On the 4-hour chart, the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is showing a bullish trend, while the Average Directional Movement Index indicates a neutral trend. Overall, the trend remains mixed.
Trading Recommendations
Consider buying on dips around the support level of 0.8890, with a stop-loss set at 0.8850 and a target price of 0.9000. This strategy allows traders to take advantage of potential upward movement while managing risks effectively.
