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Most deflationary expansion in global economy

The nominal GDP of the industrialized world has grown 9.8% since the lows of Q1'2009. One of the slowest and most deflationary expansions ever. The following situations are observed by Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

  • The Federal Reserve has been forced to keep rates at zero for 81 months, the longest period ever that the Fed has been "on hold" (exceeds the Aug'37-Sep'42 zero rate period).

  • More than seven years into the recovery, Zero Interest Rate Policies (ZIRP) are still in place, directly supporting 55% of the world economy.Bond yields remain remarkably low; 52% of all government bonds yield less than 1%; and 15% of the world's government bonds currently yield 0% or lower.

  • The size of the working population of the developed world peaked in 2011 and will fall from 833 million to 799 million by 2025, putting downward pressure on potential growth and inflation. And by 2050, the world's "Silver Generation" will increase by 885 million people, many of whom will save more in anticipation of old age.

  • Commodity prices are close to their lowest levels since 1975.

  • "Growth" stocks have outperformed "value" stocks for 62 months, the longest stretch of outperformance ever (prior record was from Apr'37 to Sept'40).

  • U.S. inflation in the past 10 years has averaged 1.8%, the lowest secular inflation rate since May'61, notes BofAM.

  • Market Data
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