Poland economy was under deflationary pressure in October with the CPI inflation reading at 0.7% y/y. The negative growth rate in price level is expected to continue in November also. The CPI deflation is expected at -0.4% y/y for November, estimates Barclays.
Since the economy is under deflationary pressure, the NBP is expected to retain its current bank rate of 1.5% at its December meeting.
"Once these changes have taken place, we forecast that the NBP will lower rates by 50bp in Q1 16 and an additional 25bp in Q2. The market is only pricing 30-35bp easing from NBP 2016. Against this backdrop PLN is likely to behave like a higher-beta EUR given economic and policy divergences of euro area-linked economies with the US, and looser fiscal and monetary policy", added Barclays.
