Fed Near Neutral Signals Caution Ahead, Shifting Focus to Fixed Income in 2026 
Today NFP report is to be published at 13:30 GMT from US. Latest information suggests there could be little delay over the release.
What is NFP report?
- NFP or non-farm payroll report is the monthly statistics on labor condition in the US released by US department of labor statistics. The report comprises goods, construction and manufacturing sector companies.
- This report influences the financial markets deeply across asset class.
Key highlights -
- Headline number for total hires last month was 257,000. Recent ADP employment number was solid at 212,000 but slight less than previous 220,000. Today's expectation is 240,000.
- Private payrolls are expected at 225,000 after last month's solid gain by 267,000.
- Second most vital component is wage growth which saw a rebound by 2.2% in the last report; market is expecting another solid gain above 2%.
- Labor force participation rate was at 62.9%, no change is expected.
- Unemployment rate ticked up in last payroll by 0.1% to 5.7%. Today market is expecting a comeback.
- Average weekly hours were previous 34.6. No major change is expected.
Impact -
- Immediate impact is usually very volatile however as the importance of inflation increases the report may lose some luster over coming months.
- Nevertheless, a strong report especially the headline number and wage growth could further strengthen dollar which is doing extremely well this week so far.
- Some gains could disappear over weak numbers, complete trend reversal is not expected.
- Instruments to watch - Euro (broken below 1.10), gold (waiting over the support 1190), yen (waiting to break the resistance at 120.5), Pound (can move towards 1.50 over strong release) and treasuries (further could gain grounds on stronger report).
