Neither FOMC minutes nor Williams helpful for the dollar

In the end the FOMC's meeting minutes did not provide any major surprises for the market and therefore no major let-up for the USD. Certainly this morning USD weakness is persisting. And indeed one does not exactly get the impression that the FOMC members are filled with confidence. 

They are referring to too many uncertainties and risks, the fall of the oil price, the appreciation of the US dollar, weaker growth in the Emerging Markets, the fall of market based inflation expectations. Even if things are going well at home and according to the top central bankers the conditions on the labor market have almost reached the Fed's target they prefer to wait a little. 

"Clearly they are not certain that domestic conditions are sufficient to bring inflation to 2% in the foreseeable future. So that simply confirms the market's view, the Fed is in no rush to normalize its monetary policy, and certainly not this year", says Commerzbank. 

However, a lift off (first Fed rate hike) still this year is not a lost cause just yet. Certainly if one wants to believe John Williams, President of the San Francisco Fed. Williams has tried once again to create some optimism amongst market participants. In his view the global outlook had not deteriorated since the September meeting. 

And also the weak US labor market report had not changed his outlook. Just as a few days beforehand he therefore signaled that he would support a rate hike this year. However, he has not been able to get through to the market so far. 

Today his colleagues Dennis Lockhart and Charles Evans have the opportunity to underline their colleague's view should they agree with him. Moreover their view is relevant as they are both more moderate or dovish members of the FOMC.