Net migration inflows to New Zealand rise in October, likely to ease gradually

New Zealand’s permanent and long-term net migration inflows rose in October. The net migration inflows rose by 40 to 4,660 as the recent trend of lifting departures dropped to more than offset a fall in arrivals. The most interesting feature of the release was the complete reversal of the recent trending up in New Zealand citizens heading of Australia, noted Barclays in a research report.

These were down 320 from last month, pulling back to levels last seen in March. On face value, this gives some validity to the unexpected drop in New Zealand’s jobless rate in the third quarter, implying the comparative strength between both economies continues to be finely balanced. However, these data could be volatile, signifying it is too early to call a change in the trans-Tasman trend.

Short-term visitor arrivals rose 4 percent sequentially to be up 5.4 percent year-on-year, in what appears to be shaping up to be a strong tourism season.

“From here, we expect the cycle to continue easing gradually with departures lifting as previous arrivals on temporary visas cycle out. The trans-Tasman picture is becoming less clear, but for now is only slowing the pace in which the cycle is easing overall”, stated ANZ.

At 13:00 GMT the FxWirePro's Hourly Strength Index of New Zealand Dollar was highly bearish at -148.851, while the FxWirePro's Hourly Strength Index of US Dollar was neutral at 72.3617. For more details on FxWirePro's Currency Strength Index, visit http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex