New Zealand ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence hits 3-year high in September

New Zealand’s ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence hit a three-year high in September, pointing to an ongoing decent pace of spending and activity growth. The softer housing market and election uncertainty have failed to dent consumer optimism. House price expectations cooled further, while inflation expectations were steady.

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index lifted from 126.2 to 129.9 in September, which is the highest level since July 2014. Once we adjust for seasonality, the index rose by 2 points to also be at its highest level since July 2014. After its recent low in April, the seasonally adjusted index has surged over 15 points.

Inflation expectations were steady at 3.1 percent, up from 3.0 percent, but still within familiar ranges. National house price inflation expectations continue to drop. At 2.5 percent, they are the lowest since 2012, and have more than halved in 5 months. All regions are on the same page, with expectations across every region now below 3 percent. Auckland and regional South Island are the lowest at 2.4 percent and 2.2 percent respectively.

"Our confidence composite gauge continues to flag strong economic momentum. Admittedly, we think that it is unlikely that we’ll get to the 4 percent+ rates of GDP growth this gauge is signalling, but it is certainly not pointing to the economy needing to come in for an emergency landing," ANZ Research commented in its latest report.

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