New Zealand’s ANZ Truckometer index shows mixed messages in March, likely to prove GDP-negative

New Zealand’s ANZ Truckometer Heavy Traffic Index fell 0.3 percent m/m in March, to be down 0.7 percent for the quarter. This isn’t a strong signal for GDP growth, but the index has been volatile lately.

On the other hand, the Light Traffic Index bounced 2.2 percent m/m, after a few months of fairly lackluster performance. This index is giving a softer signal for growth from mid-year, but the bounce-back is encouraging.

Meanwhile, the 3- month average of the Light Traffic index has now stabilized but is sending a softer signal for GDP growth mid-year.

"We will keep an eye on this data. The correlation to GDP growth has not been close lately. In addition, annual growth remains strong. However we have seen a marked deceleration in recent months that bears watching," ANZ Research commented in its latest report.

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