No Greek chaos this time round

The experts from the extended troika (The ECB, the EU Commission, the IMF and now also the ESM) appear to have reached a 'basic' agreement at 'technical level' with the Greek government on a new aid package. Only a few details allegedly still need to be worked out. The Greek parliament is to vote on the agreement tomorrow, followed by the euro zone finance ministers on Friday and then the remaining countries. 

If all goes well, Greece will have fresh funds next Thursday to pay back the ECB the €3bn due. The leftist wing of Syriza has already said it intends to vote against the agreement. And in other countries, too, not least in Germany, there is a growing body of dissent regarding another aid package. So the votes aren't a cut and dried thing at all, but the market should be spared the wheeling and dealing of July, says Commerzbank. 

The FX market is responding by sending the euro above 1.1050 to the dollar. The devaluation of the yuan has seriously shaken the Asian markets and has already given rise to new doubts of a Fed rate hike as early as September. Greece first has to implement the reforms demanded, and the Fed is expected to act in September, meaning that the dollar will gain ground again over the coming weeks, adds Commerzbank.