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Non-Farm Roll -  Various Scenarios to trade  Gold and US dollar index

Economist predicts an increase of 147,000 jobs in September—unemployment rate to remain steady at 4.2%.

 

Scenario 1 - In line with Expectations  (140000 to 150000)

 

Gold-  Weak.  It will decrease th chance of aggressive rate cuts. Decline to $2624/$2600/$2570 is possible.

 

Dollar index- Bullish due to strong data.

 

Scenario 2- Below market expectations (below 100K)

 

Gold-  Bullish. It will push the Fed to cut rates aggressively. It will push gold to a fresh all-time high ($2700).

 

Dollar Index- bearish due to weak data.

 

Scenario 3-  Well above market prediction (above 200K)

 

Gold- bearish. It will halt the fed rate cut for some time. This will


 

US dollar- Extremely bullish. The chance of crossing 102.75 is high.

 

 

 

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