Norway’s jobless rate remains unchanged in November, Norges Bank likely to hike rates in March 2019

The Norwegian unemployment is evidently seeing a downward trend. The tight labor market argues for wage growth to rise and Norges Bank to hike further, noted Nordea Bank in a research report.

The Norwegian Labor and Welfare Administration introduced a new registration in November. It still pulls up the change in unemployment. The Norwegian Labor and Welfare Administration showed that unemployment fell by 900 persons when corrected for the change in registration routine. This was slightly sharper drop than was anticipated. The figure was possibly on the solid side to Norges Bank view.

The unadjusted jobless rate remained the same at 2.3 percent. CCI fell 2.9p to two years low. The fall in the CCI was for the most affected by respondents’ belief in higher unemployment.

Meanwhile, the monthly Consumer Confidence Index dropped 2.1 points to 2.9, the lowest since November 2016. The figures are not seasonally adjusted. The index for unemployment turned into positive level this time, indicating that more people expect a rise in unemployment than people expecting a fall. This is the first positive reading since February last year. The index for expectations to own economy dropped to its lowest level since May 2016, and might have been impacted by the high energy prices that has removed the expected rise in real wages in 2018.

The expectations for the economy were lower. Consumptions’ view of the labor market is contrasting most data indicating high employment growth and lower unemployment, noted DNB Markets in a research report. However, lower expectations to own economy might be impacted by the non-growth in real wages in 2018.

“We expect optimism to gradually return the first part of the next year as the employment growth continues and purchasing power again will increase. We still think Norges Bank will aim to hike rates in March next year”, added DNB Markets.