Norwegian GDP growth likely accelerated in Q1 2016

Norway’s first quarter GDP figures will be out today. The projection of central bank is for 0.15% growth, whereas consensus expectations are for growth of 0.2%.

Goods’ production indexes show that there is a recovery in growth. The pace of decline in manufacturing production has decelerated considerably, whereas construction growth has accelerated. Moreover, in the first quarter electricity production expanded strongly; however it is likely to have been for a temporary period of time.

Meanwhile, there is a high level of uncertainty regarding the service sector. Business to business services and subdued retail sales are due to the slump in oil that indicates weak growth. However, according to the central bank’s business survey, services in relation to consumers have been performing well. Overall, services growth is expected to be just slightly more than zero.

The mainland GDP is likely to have grown 0.4% q/q and 0.7% y/y in Q1 2016, as compared with 0.1% q/q growth registered in Q4 2015, said Nordea Bank in a research report.