Norwegian retail sales fall sequentially in December

Norwegian retail sales dropped in December, following a solid growth in the prior month. On a sequential basis, retail sales fell 1.8 percent, as compared with the consensus expectations of a fall of 0.4 percent.

The monthly change in December should be ignored since it is a reflection of a solid November, noted Nordea Bank in a research report. It would be better to look at the two months together since they capture Christmas shopping. They are subdued. The two months is 0.4 percent below the same months in 2017 and the trend is a bit down. This is probably due to the solid rise in energy prices, which signifies that headline inflation have been above 3 percent since June last year.

The consumption of goods indicator dropped 0.3 percent. But due to services holding up better, total private consumption might come in at 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter, which might be in line with the Norges Bank forecast, added Nordea Bank.