Oil Market Dynamics: Prices Retrace Amidst Declining Inventories and Key Support Levels

The prices of crude oil have retreated some gains since they hit multi-week highs after trading a peak of $75.26 to currently around $73.45.

On January 9, 2025, U.S. crude oil inventories had stayed in their downward trend. For the week of January 3, 2025, commercial crude oil stocks decreased by 959,000 barrels to sit at 414.6 million, which equates to an average of -6% around this time of year. Thus, for seven weeks running in a row now, crude oil stock has fallen further tightening up the market from the side of supply. Stocks at the Cushing delivery hub declined by close to 2.5 million barrels, to levels last seen more than a decade ago. Crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.9 million barrels per day, down only a little from the previous week's average. Crude inventories went down, although gasoline and distillate fuel stocks rose, where gasoline increased 6.3 million barrels while distillate inventories surged 6.1 million more than expected.

Price Resistance and Support Levels

The near-term resistance is around $73.70; any breach above this level could push prices higher to $75 or $76. On the downside, immediate support is at $72.50, violation below targets $71.80, $70.75, $70, $69, $68, or even $66.60. Good buys on dips are around $72.50 with a stop-loss of around $71.70 and a target price of $75.