Trump Orders Blockade of Sanctioned Oil Tankers, Raising Venezuela Tensions and Oil Prices 
Gold and Silver Prices Dip as Markets Await Key U.S. Economic Data 
U.S. Dollar Steadies Near October Lows as Rate Cut Expectations Keep Markets on Edge 
Bank of Korea Downplays Liquidity’s Role in Weak Won and Housing Price Surge 
Chinese Robotaxi Stocks Rally as Tesla Boosts Autonomous Driving Optimism 
Asian Fund Managers Turn More Optimistic on Growth but Curb Equity Return Expectations: BofA Survey 
South Korea Warns Weak Won Could Push Inflation Higher in 2025 
U.S. Stock Futures Slip After CPI-Fueled Rally as Markets Weigh Economic Uncertainty 
Japan Exports to U.S. Rebound in November as Tariff Impact Eases, Boosting BOJ Rate Hike Expectations 
Asian Stocks Slide as AI Spending Fears and Global Central Bank Decisions Weigh on Markets 
Singapore Growth Outlook Brightens for 2025 as Economists Flag AI and Geopolitical Risks 
BOJ Poised for Historic Rate Hike as Japan Signals Shift Toward Monetary Normalization 
RBA Unlikely to Cut Interest Rates in 2026 as Inflation Pressures Persist, Says Westpac 
Oil Prices Rebound as Trump Orders Blockade of Sanctioned Venezuelan Tankers 
Oil Prices Steady in Asia but Headed for Weekly Loss on Supply Glut Concerns 
New Zealand Business Confidence Hits 30-Year High as Economic Outlook Improves 
Gold and Silver Surge as Safe Haven Demand Rises on U.S. Economic Uncertainty 
Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris is currently favored to win the November election, according to analysts at BCA Research. However, they warn that Republican rival Donald Trump’s chances could improve if economic activity slows significantly before the vote.
Harris Holds Slight Edge in Electoral College Predictions
BCA’s presidential models predict a 56% chance of victory for Harris, projecting 303 of the 538 available Electoral College votes. A simple majority of 270 is required to win, with several swing states likely to determine the outcome.
Changes in Swing State Dynamics
Over the past month, Harris' chances have improved in 21 states, including the battleground state of Arizona. However, the analysts note that her chances have decreased in Michigan, another key swing state, since August. Arizona is currently the only toss-up state where local economic growth is outpacing the national average, while Michigan’s economic activity has “effectively fallen into contraction.”
Other coincident indices modeled by BCA — which track economic conditions — have also decelerated in swing states such as Wisconsin, Georgia, and Nevada. These shifts in economic momentum could make the race “excruciatingly close” as the Nov. 5 election approaches, according to the analysts.
Impact of Federal Reserve Rate Cut and Potential Republican Upset
“[Democrats] are facing growing pressure from the economy,” the analysts noted. They emphasize the importance of monitoring whether a recent 50-basis point interest rate reduction by the Federal Reserve will prevent the economy from cooling too rapidly. While the rate cut has boosted the stock market and created “positive vibes” that support the ruling Democratic party, this effect could still change as the election nears.
“If the economy goes south despite the recent rate cut, [Republicans] could pull off a comeback by November,” the analysts concluded.
