Oil Prices Steady as U.S.-Iran Peace Talks Ease Strait of Hormuz Supply Fears

Oil prices ended the week largely unchanged as investors weighed improving prospects for a lasting U.S.-Iran peace agreement against rising crude supply from the Middle East.

Brent crude futures settled up 14 cents, or 0.19%, at $71.94 per barrel, finishing the week just 5 cents below last Friday’s close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 9 cents, or 0.13%, to $68.78 per barrel. Trading activity remained subdued as U.S. financial markets were closed ahead of the Independence Day holiday.

Both benchmarks had dropped to their lowest levels since before the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran began in late February, reflecting growing confidence that tensions may continue to ease.

Market sentiment has improved as negotiations between Washington and Tehran continue, raising expectations that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open for global energy shipments. Analysts at Commerzbank said optimism surrounding the talks has strengthened hopes for a full reopening of the key shipping route.

Citi analysts noted that while the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding remains fragile, both sides currently have little incentive to abandon it despite ongoing disagreements over the administration and tolling of the Strait of Hormuz.

Although some shipping has resumed through the strategic waterway, uncertainty persists after both countries exchanged military strikes last weekend following an Iranian attack on a cargo vessel.

Meanwhile, oil supply from the Gulf is recovering faster than expected. A Reuters survey showed OPEC production increased by 3.3 million barrels per day in June compared with the previous month. Kuwait also significantly boosted production to 1.65 million barrels per day from 580,000 barrels per day in May, according to a source familiar with the matter.

Trade sources and shipping data also indicated that at least five supertankers carrying around 10 million barrels of Saudi crude have departed through the Strait of Hormuz, while Saudi Aramco has shifted toward spot pricing to accelerate crude sales across Asia.

Analysts say stronger Middle Eastern exports, combined with weak Chinese import demand, have shifted the oil market from backwardation into contango, signaling improving near-term supply availability and easing concerns over future shortages.