Poland's future monetary policy depends on fiscal decisions

Poland's current monetary policy has no risks of change in near term. The PLN might be impacted by the potential risk connected to Grexit. 

However, the central bank and Ministry of Finance would likely intervene on the FX market, which is why in a negative scenario, PLN weakening will be limited. CPI will be definitely impacted by the political risk connected to the scale of fiscal loosening. 

"An expansionary fiscal policy might create a risk for monetary policy next year. Assuming no external shocks, headline inflation of close to 1.5% yoy, growing domestic demand and an improved labour market could be used as arguments for rate hikes next year. Monetary policy tightening will start when the new council is elected, probably in Q2 16", says Societe Generale.