Policy Split Lifts EUR/GBP Above 0.8700—Bulls Target 0.8800 on Dips

EURGBP holds above 0.8700 on policy divergence between the ECB and the BOE. Intraday bias remains bullish as long as support 0.8640 holds. It hits an intraday high of 0.87270 and is currently trading around 0.87146.

Having lowered interest rates before and stable eurozone inflation at about its 2% goal, the European Central Bank (ECB) decided on July 24, 2025 to maintain its key rates unchanged—deposit facility at 2. 00%, main refinancing operations at 2. 15%, and marginal lending facility at 2.40%—adopting a "wait and see" stance. Although no new macroeconomic projections were published ahead of the September 2025 update, the ECB noted risks including US-EU trade tensions, possible euro appreciation-induced disinflation, and more general economic volatility from artificial intelligence, digitalisation, and geopolitical fragmentation. Reaffirming its 2% inflation target and flexible tool usage, the ECB's revised policy approach emphasizes vigilance against outside shocks and anchored inflation expectations, hence indicating that future policy changes depend on arriving data and not anticipated before September.

Technical Analysis

The pair is currently trading above 55 and 200- EMA and 365-EMA on the 4-hour chart.

Bearish Trend Confirmation: Any break below 0.8678 confirms an intraday bearish trend. A drop to 0.8640/0.8580/0.8520/0.8480 is likely.

Near-Term Resistance:  The near -term resistance is around 0.8730. Any violation above will take the pair to 0.8765/0.8800.

Indicator Analysis (4-hour chart)

CCI (50): Bullish

Average Directional Movement Index:  Bullish

Trading Recommendation

It  is good to buy on dips around 0.8680 with SL around 0.8630  for a TP of 0.8800.