Polish labor market strengthens

The Central Statistical Office in Warsaw released the November 2015 gross average wage level, which indicated a year-over-year rise of 4.0%, a tenth of a percent greater than consensus. Average paid employment for November rose 1.2% on the year, again exceeding consensus expectations by a tenth of a percent. Overall, these data point to a continued strengthening in the Polish labour market, which is expected to be reflected in the unemployment rate release on December 23.   
 
The NBP released core CPI data for November today. The year-over-year outturn, at 0.2%, was weaker than the consensus forecast of 0.3%, and headline CPI remains in deflation.

Overall, today's data releases point to improving conditions in the labour market, but the weaker-than-expected core CPI inflation outturn is consistent with the forecast of a 75bp cut in the NBP's base rate next year.