Probably only “policy change light” for Greece

There is nothing to suggest at the moment that the economies in Portugal and Spain will weaken noticeably ahead of the parliamentary elections, which should play more into the hands of the governing parties than the extreme left parties. This applies especially to Spain where the government has used the budgetary leeway resulting from the surprisingly strong economy to bring forward to 1 July the income tax cuts which were originally planned for the beginning of 2016.

And the economic chaos in Greece after a Grexit is more likely to harm the extreme left parties. That said, the current governing parties will not be able to defend their current majorities. It is impossible at present to predict whether this will lead to "grand coalitions" or whether the socialists will form an alliance with the other (also extreme) left-wing parties. 

One thing can be assumed though, In the case of a left-wing government, the more social democratic oriented Socialist Party would lead the government in both countries. And such a government would not pursue such a radical change of course as in Greece.

Far-reaching changes to structural reforms (e.g. on the labour market) are unlikely. Policy shifts are likely to be limited to a loosening of the austerity course and elimination of "social hardships", says Commerzbank.