RUB appreciation potential remains limited

At the beginning of the week, USD-RUB traded around 64, i.e. at the same level as at the end of last week. At least the RUB did not come under further pressure yesterday. One reason was probably that the USD has not yet really benefited from the approaching rate hikes. 

"On one of the next few days, the ruble side will come into play again. After all, Russian GDP data for the second quarter are due to be published. GDP already shrank palpably in the first quarter (-1.3% qoq)", says Commerzbank. 

Now, the analysts forecast a contraction by almost double that rate. However, remember that GDP forecasts for Russia are very difficult at the moment due to the sanctions. It is quite possible that, while GDP shrinks again massively, the final outcome is better than the Bloomberg consensus. 

"Such a result would prop up the ruble. Nevertheless, any exchange-rate gains should be limited, even if GDP contracts only by 1.5% or 2%, as numerous market participants will realise again just how difficult the situation in Russia is at the moment. From my vantage point, lower USD-RUB exchange rates offer attractive entry opportunities", added Commerzbank.