According to Rosstat surveys, while consumer sentiment in Q4 14 and Q1 15 was mainly determined by recent developments in the local economy, it will now likely be dominated by expectations surrounding the economic outlook, particularly individual conditions.
The latter indicator is key, especially given the sharp adjustment in real wages and early signs of unemployment growth. However, taken separately, it does not reflect the stronger momentum in the FX market, moderately decelerating inflation expectations, and tight credit conditions. Although retail sales contracted by 8.7% yoy in March, the contraction in the key components - food and non-food consumption - moderated remarkably on a monthly basis. Taking this and the deceleration of inflation into account, the retail sales likely improved slightly to -8.5% yoy, added Societe Generale.
