The central bank of Russia is expected to keep its bank rate unchanged at the current level at its policy meeting end of this week. Earlier, the central bank is expected to cut rates, but as inflation rate in the economy is moving up the bank is expected to hold the rates unchanged.
Recently, Russia imposed restriction on import of fruits and vegetables from Turkey. Due to the lower oil prices in the global market, fiscal balance of the economy is deteriorated and RUB is under pressure.
"True that inflation in November decelerated to 15% y/y from 15.6% y/y in October, and we expect inflation to decline in the coming months on strong base effects. However, there are several headwinds that could cause re-acceleration of inflation, which could lead CBR to lean on the cautious side", argues Barclays in a research note.
