Ryanair Revises Passenger Growth Target Due to Boeing Delays

Ryanair (LON:0RYA) has revised its fiscal 2026 passenger growth target to 206 million, down from the original 210 million, due to delays in Boeing (NYSE:BA) aircraft deliveries. The reduction reflects a modest 3% adjustment as Boeing struggles to meet production timelines for its 737-8200 “Gamechanger” planes.

While Boeing’s production recovers from 2024 disruptions, including a strike, Ryanair anticipates insufficient deliveries to meet initial goals. The airline hopes to recover growth during the summer of 2026 as it expects the remaining 29 Gamechanger aircraft in its 210-unit order to arrive by March 2026. Ryanair is also integrating Boeing's MAX-10 model, with deliveries starting in spring 2027 to support long-term expansion.

Analysts at RBC Capital Markets highlight Ryanair’s low-cost, high-margin business model and project free cash flow (FCF) yields exceeding 10% by FY26, enabling potential shareholder returns. The company is reallocating capacity to markets like Poland, Sweden, and Italy, where aviation policies support growth. Nearly all of its summer 2025 capacity, featuring 164 new routes, is now on sale.

For the December 2024 quarter, Ryanair reported €149 million in after-tax profit, a significant increase from €15 million the prior year. Passenger traffic grew 9% to 45 million, driving a 10% rise in total revenue to €2.96 billion. Ancillary revenue also climbed 10%, fueled by demand for add-ons such as seat selection and priority boarding.

Despite challenges, Ryanair remains committed to its long-term goal of reaching 300 million annual passengers by 2034. For FY25, it projects post-tax profits between €1.55 billion and €1.61 billion, though risks from geopolitical tensions, further Boeing delays, and air traffic control issues could impact outcomes.