Global EV Sales to Surge 17% in 2025 Amid Subsidy Extensions and Emission Targets

Global electric vehicle (EV) sales are expected to grow by over 17% in 2025, surpassing 20 million units, driven by China's extension of auto trade-in subsidies and new CO2 emission targets in Europe, according to Rho Motion.

China, the leading EV market, is projected to exceed its previous forecast of 17% growth in 2025, bolstered by subsidies and a record 40% sales jump in 2024, reaching 11 million units. Chinese-made EVs are set to dominate emerging markets, including Latin America, where they held over 80% market share last year, and continue to expand in the Asia-Pacific region.

Europe, the second-largest EV market, will see 15% sales growth in 2025, up from 3 million EVs sold in 2024, as stricter CO2 regulations and affordable models gain traction. However, growth may be slower compared to 2023. Carmakers face potential EU emission fines of 10 billion euros, a drop from earlier estimates of 15 billion euros due to emission pooling and industry advancements.

In the U.S., Rho Motion predicts a 16% rise in EV sales in 2025 despite uncertainties from policy rollbacks under President Donald Trump. While short-term growth is expected, long-term consequences could include a 47% decline in EV battery demand by 2040.

Rho Motion Head of Research, Iola Hughes, emphasized that while U.S. EV forecasts have been reduced, the shift to electrification remains strong, ensuring consistent growth in the decade ahead.

The automotive industry views 2025 as a pivotal year, with Europe pushing for increased EV adoption, China extending subsidies, and global trends shaping the future of sustainable transportation.