Several studies of U.S. midterm elections show the S&P 500 has tended to rise afterward, but their different time frames and return calculations complicate comparisons ahead of Tuesday’s vote.
For 11 U.S. midterm cycles from 1982 to 2022, CNBC counted an S&P 500 rise in every subsequent one-year period; across those periods, the reported average was 13.7%. CNBC did not identify the precise dates used or say whether dividends were included.
In a separate CNBC comparison, the index gained an average of 15% over one year after 15 elections that produced divided government: 10 midterms and five presidential elections. Returns were positive in 14 of those periods. CNBC put the average after elections resulting in single-party control at 11.5%, but did not detail how it classified control.
BlackRock used Bloomberg data to compare six-month returns after midterms with returns in non-midterm years, using hypothetical election dates for years without elections. Its sample of 14 midterms from 1970 through 2022 showed an average total return of 14.1% in the midterm windows, against 5.7% in the comparison windows. EconoTimes has also examined a longer record of post-midterm S&P 500 returns dating to 1938.
Across data beginning in 1950, Fidelity ranks the year following midterm voting as the strongest on average within the four-year presidential cycle. The firm notes that returns were not positive in every post-midterm period. It links the pattern partly to policy uncertainty easing after votes and says divided control can make major policy shifts less likely. Fidelity presents those as possible explanations, not proof that election outcomes drive stock gains.
Other forces also shape market returns. The Federal Reserve raised its federal funds target range by a quarter-point four times in 2018. S&P Dow Jones Indices recorded a 6.24% price decline for the S&P 500 that year; those records do not show that the election or rate increases caused the drop.
USAGov says the 2026 U.S. midterm election is scheduled for Tuesday, Nov. 3. Voters will decide all 435 House seats and roughly one-third of Senate seats.
