Saudi interbank rate points trouble ahead

Saudi Arabia’s may continue to produce more barrels of oil as if lower prices don’t hurt them but a few of the data which are reliably available say otherwise. One of such is Saudi interbank rates, the rates at which banks lend to each other and that rate is clearly showing that the financial conditions have tightened.

The 3-month interbank rate was around just 80 basis points in 2015 but as oil price continued to drop and the inflows to the banks shrunk, the rate started rising from the middle of the year and currently it is around 230 basis points. This the highest level since the great recession of 2008/09. The great recession and the decline of oil at that time didn’t hurt the country much as the drop was lighting fast and the recovery was steady and quick, but this time around the decline that began in mid-2014, bottomed only earlier this year and as of now, it seems the recovery would be much slower. Both raw crude and gasoline surplus is quite large.

Saudi Arabia has so far maintained its peg with the dollar at 3.75 per dollar, but if the opil price doesn’t improve, that peg may not survive.