Singapore’s 2018 CPI inflation forecast lowered to 0.7 pct: DBS Economics & Strategy

Singapore’s consumer price inflation forecast for this year has been lowered to 0.7 percent, from previous estimates of 1.0 percent, according to the latest research report from DBS Economics & Strategy.

While recent pick-up in inflation readings have been in line with DBS’ long-held view, average inflation for the first half of this year (0.3 percent y/y) has been lower than previously anticipated. There are signs that the subsequent increases in the coming months could be gradual.

The persistent decline has been largely driven by weak rentals on an existing supply glut and a moderation in the inflow of foreigners. While the decline shows some tentative signs of easing, the government’s recent and new property market cooling measures will weigh down on the property market and subsequently, on rental and accommodation CPI inflation as well.

"We continue to expect the core inflation series to remain range-bound between 1.5-2 percent for the rest of the year. On this account, there is little impetus for the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to shift away from its current gradual appreciation stance, particularly given the risk to growth arising from the external headwinds. We are also keeping to our inflation forecast of 1.8 percent in 2019," the report commented.