South China Sea: Expert says an invasion of Taiwan would be done if China is certain to succeed

Tensions remain high regarding the island nation and the disputed South China Sea among countries, including the West, as any wrong move could trigger military. However, an expert has warned that an invasion of Taiwan may be inevitable, but only if China is certain to succeed.

David Rennie, the Beijing Bureau Chief of The Economist, warned that China would inevitably look to invade the island nation as Chinese President Xi Jinping looks to cement his legacy in “reunifying” Taiwan with the mainland. China claims Taiwan as a breakaway province and has since been engaging in a pressure campaign against its democratic government. Taiwan has maintained its autonomy and independence along with support from western allies, including Japan.

However, Rennie noted that China would only commit to invading Taiwan if they are certain that they could succeed. Rennie added that should China be defeated in its invasion, the country would see its reputation tarnished and its military and geopolitical ambitions shattered.

“There is a problem because if you are the Chinese leader you cannot go down history as the guy who allowed Taiwan to get away,” Rennie explained to LBC.

Rennie cited that China’s main issue with Taiwan is that its democratic government is pro-Western rather than run by China, which may force the Communist nation to seek to “reunify” Taiwan with the mainland. However, Rennie added that an invasion of Taiwan would take an incredible amount of military intervention, which also could pose a risk to the Chinese Communist Party.

Japan has also previously raised the concern that a possible invasion of Taiwan by China could also spell trouble for the country. Japanese Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi recently urged European nations to band together to condemn China’s increasing aggression in Taiwan and in the South China Sea.

Speaking to The Guardian, Kishi warned that China’s military is becoming more powerful and that it is trying to use its power to “unilaterally change the status quo in the East and South China Seas.” Kishi added that China is also garnering more political and economic power, which is a concern for Tokyo.