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South Korea's exports likely grew for the second straight month in March, driven by strong semiconductor demand, according to a Reuters poll of nine economists. Outbound shipments from Asia’s fourth-largest economy are projected to have risen 3.5% year-on-year, following a revised 0.7% increase in February.
Despite favorable calendar effects, February exports saw only modest gains as demand from key markets like China weakened amid escalating global trade tensions. U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs—targeting Chinese goods, steel, and aluminum—have added uncertainty. Further pressure looms as new auto tariffs take effect next week, and potential duties on chip imports are being considered.
Park Sang-hyun of iM Securities warned that the implementation of reciprocal tariffs starting April could stall export growth. Chun Kyu-yeon of Hana Securities noted that South Korea may be included in the "Dirty 15" list of nations with persistent trade surpluses, further increasing downside risk.
Data from the first 20 days of March showed a 4.5% rise in exports, with semiconductor shipments jumping 11.6%. Exports to the U.S. and EU increased, while those to China declined. SK Hynix, the second-largest memory chipmaker after Samsung Electronics, reported that customers were accelerating orders ahead of anticipated tariffs on semiconductors.
Imports are expected to have grown 2.3% in March, up from February’s 0.2%. The trade surplus is forecast at $6.06 billion, widening from $4.15 billion a month earlier.
As the first major exporting nation to release monthly trade data, South Korea is set to publish its March figures on April 1 at 9 a.m. KST. Despite export gains, concerns remain over the impact of ongoing global trade friction on future performance.
