South Korea's inflation expected to rise slightly in September

South Korea's headline and core inflation are likely to have rebounded slightly on a year-on-year basis in September. Month-on-month headline inflation is expected at just 0.1%. The rise in fresh food prices ahead of the Chuseok holiday and the hike in gas prices will likely be balanced by the decline in oil prices and discounted car prices thanks to a temporary excise tax cut put in place until the end of this year. Core CPI should show no month-on-month change, though base effects should raise year-on-year inflation by 0.1ppt. 

"We maintain our base-case scenario that headline inflation will rise above 1% as we approach year-end and that core inflation will stay around the current level for a considerable period", says Societe Generale.