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Southwest Airlines surprised investors with an unexpected third-quarter profit and projected record sales for the current quarter, fueled by a rebound in travel demand. The Dallas-based carrier reported adjusted earnings of $0.11 per share, beating analysts’ expectations of a $0.03 loss, according to LSEG data. Revenue reached $6.95 billion, surpassing forecasts of $6.29 billion. Shares of Southwest rose more than 3% in after-hours trading following the announcement.
The airline said travel bookings improved notably in early July, with stronger business travel contributing to higher demand. It expects momentum to continue through December, supporting a meaningful expansion in fourth-quarter profit margins. However, the company lowered its revenue per available seat mile (RASM) growth forecast for the December quarter to between 1% and 3%, down from its earlier estimate of around 6%.
Southwest attributed this adjustment to delays in retrofitting its Boeing 737-700 fleet with extra-legroom seats, now postponed to January, as well as the financial impact of the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. Analysts at TD Cowen estimate the shutdown could cost the airline around $1.5 million per day—higher than Delta’s projected $1 million daily hit.
The carrier expects seat capacity to rise compared to last year, aided by deferred retrofits. Its fourth-quarter earnings are projected between $0.65 and $0.95 per share, with a midpoint of $0.80—above the analyst average of $0.75 per share.
While Southwest remains profitable, it continues to lag behind rivals Delta and United, underscoring a widening performance gap in the U.S. airline industry. Once the most consistently profitable airline, Southwest is now pursuing strategic changes, including introducing checked baggage fees, basic-economy fares, and assigned seating starting in January. The company has also trimmed 15% of its corporate workforce and remains on target for $370 million in annual cost savings.
