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The British pound came under heavy selling pressure on Thursday after rising political uncertainty in the United Kingdom triggered a sharp increase in forex market volatility. Investors reacted swiftly to reports suggesting Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham could soon enter Parliament and potentially launch a future leadership challenge for Prime Minister.
According to a Deutsche Bank research report released on May 14, 2026, sterling’s recent stability ended abruptly as political developments intensified following the UK local elections. Analysts believe the election results may extend political uncertainty throughout the summer, creating additional pressure on the pound and UK financial markets.
Recent reports indicate that Burnham is unlikely to face opposition from Labour’s National Executive Committee (NEC), clearing a path for him to contest the upcoming Makerfield by-election. While Labour remains the favorite to hold the seat, analysts warn the outcome is far from guaranteed, increasing investor caution ahead of the expected vote between mid-June and early July.
Currency traders quickly adjusted positions as foreign exchange options markets began pricing in greater risk around the possible by-election period. Market concerns are largely tied to Burnham’s reputation as one of the least market-friendly figures among potential successors to Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
Although Burnham has recently softened earlier comments suggesting the UK was overly dependent on bond markets, investor confidence in sterling weakened significantly. Deutsche Bank data showed the risk premium in the EUR/GBP pair climbed above 2% following the latest market moves.
Strategists also warned that if EUR/GBP rises further toward 0.8775, combined with weaker short-term UK rates compared to the eurozone, the pound’s risk premium could return to levels last seen before the UK Budget announcement.
The latest political developments have increased volatility across UK assets, with traders closely monitoring sterling performance, European equity pairs, and interest rate markets for further signs of instability.
