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The sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) industry is falling behind its 2030 targets, with global production not increasing fast enough to meet demand, according to a new report by Boston Consulting Group (BCG). Despite a 1,150% surge in global SAF supply over the past three years, new project announcements fell by 50% to 70% from 2022 to 2023 due to rising energy and operational costs, as well as economic uncertainty.
SAF currently accounts for only 0.3% of global jet fuel usage in 2024. In Europe, airlines are mandated to use 2% SAF this year, increasing to 6% by 2030. However, the high cost of SAF—three to five times more than conventional jet fuel—remains a significant barrier. BCG’s survey of over 500 executives from 200 aviation companies revealed that airlines and airports allocate just 1% to 3% of their budgets to SAF investment.
BCG Managing Director Pelayo Losada noted that while the industry is moving in the right direction, progress is far too slow. He warned that supply could fall 30% to 45% short of what’s needed by 2030 to meet climate goals. Losada criticized the widespread industry attitude of expecting others to lead the change, urging greater cross-sector collaboration.
Compounding the problem, countries like China are seeing SAF project delays due to unclear policy frameworks and low consumption. The aviation sector, which aims for net-zero emissions by 2050, is now at risk of missing key environmental targets unless investment and cooperation accelerate. Without stronger policy support, funding, and a united industry approach, SAF adoption is unlikely to meet future sustainability benchmarks.
