Tailwind for USD from FOMC minutes?

Emerging Markets on the up, general risk on sentiment and now the IMF even recommends that the Fed should wait a little before hiking rates. Not just the Fed Funds Futures demonstrate that the market is getting increasingly sceptical as far as a lift off before the end of the year is concerned. 

However, there is a risk that all those who think that it is now time to sell USD will feel some unease tonight, as the Fed will then publish the minutes of the FOMC meeting. And this was the meeting for which many had already expected a first rate step. 

Comments by various FOMC members following the meeting illustrated that the FOMC was indeed very close to raising interest rates at the time. That is likely to be reflected in the minutes of the meeting. So the minutes are likely to sound quite hawkish. 

Even though it is of course clear that the meeting took place before the last disappointing labour market report the minutes are likely to illustrate once again to the market that even the numerous doves amongst the FOMC are beginning to review their position. 

"So there is a possibility that this will shake the currently dominant market view that a Fed rate hike is not imminent. So whoever is going to bet on a weaker USD should perhaps wait for tonight's publication of the minutes", says Commerzbank. 

It seems questionable anyway whether USD shorts are going to be a good strategy medium term, above all against the euro, as in the euro zone neither economic nor price data is moving in a direction that is likely to satisfy the ECB. Therefore the ECB is likely to extend its QE programme.