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The end of an era in FX intervention in Brazil

The Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) announced on 24 March that it will no longer offer USD swaps on a daily basis as it has been since August 2013. 

The BCB also committed to rolling over all contracts expiring on 1 May, as well as continuing to offer USD repos as market conditions require. 

The statement reminded markets that the BCB could still intervene in the FX market. The announcement is in line with signals from the new economic team led by Finance Minister Levy, who has favoured a less interventionist approach than during President Dilma Rousseff's first term. 

USD-BRL traded higher after the announcement. Markets will watch for the BCB's willingness to intervene on a discretionary basis after 1 April, when the swap program will no longer be in place. 

Italo Lombardi of Standard Chartered "maintain[s] our end Q2-2015 USD-BRL forecast of 3.60."

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