UK CPI Fuels BOE Rate Cut Hopes: EURGBP Reacts

EURGBP holds above 0.8550 as weak UK CPI increased the chance of a rate cut by the BOE in the near term. Intraday bias remains bullish as long as support 0.8480 holds. It hits an intraday high of 0.85601 and is currently trading around 0.85541.

May 2025 saw a slight decrease in inflation, as per the UK Consumer Prices Index (CPI), with an annualized rate of 3.4% from 3.5% in April and 2% on sat til 5 June, while the monthly increase was 0.3% in May. In April, the core CPI, which does not include items that fluctuate, fell to 3.5% this year from 3.8%. While the transport sector was a factor in the decline, the growth in food and furniture caused some pressure on the demand for household items. These statistics, along with correction for a rise in Vehicle Excise Duty figures from April, show continued moderation of price pressures.

Technical Analysis

The pair is currently trading above 55 and 200-EMA and 365-EMA on the 4-hour chart.

Bearish Trend Confirmation: Any break below 0.8480 confirms an intraday bearish trend. A drop to 0.84425/0.8400/0.8378/0.8340/0.8300 is likely.

Near-Term Resistance:  The near-term resistance is around 0.8560. Any violation above will take the pair to 0.8605/ 0.8660/0.8765/0.8800.

Indicator Analysis (4-hour chart)

CCI (50): Bullish

Average Directional Movement Index:  Neutral

Trading Recommendation

It is good to buy on dips around 0.8500 with SL around 0.8480  for a TP of 0.8605.