UK Q2 GDP second estimate to confirm first estimate of 0.7%

Further data has been released for both industrial production and construction output, since the release of the first estimate. In the first estimate, the qoq growth rates of these two components were 1.0% and 0.0% and in the subsequent publication of the June data these were revised to 0.7% and 0.2% respectively. 

"These are small revisions and in any case offset each other. There has been no further data on services output so the second estimate of Q2 GDP growth is expected to be the same as the first estimate of 0.7% qoq", says Societe Generale.

There will, however, be the usual set of expenditure data which will provide the first breakdown for that quarter. Consumption is expected to be the driving force of growth.

The trend is strong and retail sales data point to a continuation of that strength in the second quarter. There should also have been a positive contribution to growth from net exports. Exports grew whereas imports were little changed.