U.K. September labor market data likely to show certain signs of Brexit damage

The U.K. labor market data for the month of September is expected to show certain signs of Brexit damage. So far, the labor market has indicated no effect of the Brexit uncertainty shock. In August the claimant count was up by just 2.4k and is likely to have increased by just 5k in September, according to Societe Generale.

But this might just marginally raise the claimant count rate to 2.3 percent from 2.2 percent. On the contrary, the fuller but lagging Labor Force Survey data is expected to show that the jobless rate is declining.

Employment growth in the U.K. is likely to have been modest, growing 0.4 percent three month-on-three month in August, after rising 0.5 percent in July. Also, growth in the active labor force is also expected to have eased to 0.3 percent from 0.4 percent, stated Societe Generale.

The data are close to a rounding point; however, the jobless rate is expected to have dropped to 4.8 percent from 4.9 percent with the risk of remaining at 4.9 percent, added Societe Generale. Earnings growth excluding bonuses might drop to 2 percent from 2.1 percent three month year-on-year; however, total earnings are likely to have stayed at 2.3 percent.