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Britain’s labour market remained weak heading into the Bank of England’s latest interest rate decision, with job vacancies falling to a four-year low and wage growth staying subdued.
Average weekly earnings excluding bonuses increased 3.5% year-on-year in the three months to July, the Office for National Statistics said Tuesday. The figure matched economists’ expectations and remained close to the slowest growth rate recorded since 2020.
UK job vacancies declined to 702,000 in the three months to August, their lowest level since the period ending April 2021. Small businesses pointed to high employment costs as one factor limiting recruitment. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate held at 4.9% in the three months to July.
The pound weakened slightly against the U.S. dollar following the data as investors assessed the outlook for UK interest rates and economic growth.
Private-sector regular pay, a closely watched indicator of domestic inflation pressure, rose just 2.9% annually in the three months to July. That was the weakest increase since the three months to October 2020.
The softer labour market could give the Bank of England room to leave interest rates unchanged on Thursday, although policymakers face renewed inflation risks from higher energy prices linked to the Iran war. Oil prices climbed again Tuesday amid concerns about supply disruptions following attacks on Saudi Arabian energy infrastructure.
Berenberg senior UK economist Andrew Wishart said looser labour conditions compared with the 2022 energy shock make another wage-price spiral unlikely. However, he expects the BoE to indicate that a November rate hike could be necessary unless energy prices retreat.
Markets were pricing roughly a one-in-three probability of a 25-basis-point increase on Thursday, while hikes in November and December were more firmly anticipated.
Total average weekly earnings, including bonuses, grew 3.9% annually, slowing from 4.2% previously. The figure is particularly significant because it feeds into the UK state pension triple-lock calculation.
Institute for Fiscal Studies economist Heidi Karjalainen said the latest earnings data could lift the full state pension to around £250 per week in April 2027, up from £241.
